Posted by How Age Affects Operations and Support Costs Differently Across Platforms
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How Age Affects Operations – Grinnell
Abstract
This paper expands on work previously published in Ship Scheduled Overhaul Costs Over Time (J.R. Summerville, R.L. Coleman, M.E. Dameron, S. D. Leach, SCEA 2003) and the more recent installment, Operating & Support Cost Over Time (S.E. Grinnell, J.R. Summerville, M.E. Dameron, R.L. Coleman, SCEA 2004). The first paper was ground-breaking research that showed that age does indeed have an effect on ship Operations and Support (O&S) costs. In the latter paper, the research was further refined to show that the O&S cost for a ship goes up over time and then, because the number of overhauls and repairs decrease at the end of a ship’s life, the cost decreases in the last few years of a ship’s life. The discussion in this paper will focus on more recent research that demonstrates there is also an age effect in aircraft. This discovery is important for a couple of reasons. First of all, it confirms that age is a cost driver for platforms other than ships. However, it also shows that age effects are different across platforms. Age affects different cost elements in each platform. Not only that, but where there are age effects in the same element across platforms, the age effects can vary in type. In one platform cost may increase throughout system life and in the other platform cost may increase until close to the end of system life and then decrease. This is crucial knowledge when it comes to estimating O&S costs because it shows that each platform needs to be researched for age effects independently of other platforms. Age effects discussed will apply to rotary wing aircraft. Data for the analysis was obtained from the Navy’s Visibility and Management of Operations and Support Cost (VAMOSC) database. Aircraft included in the historical data are HH-60H, SH-60B, SH- 60F, and MH-60S
Author(s):
Sarah Grinnell
graduated magna cum laude from the College of William and Mary with a B.S. in Mathematics in 2003. She was recently appointed as Technical/Research Manager for TASC’s two cost departments. She has provided cost and risk support to a variety of projects including cost analysis for the Navy’s DD(X) and MH-60R programs, risk analysis for MDA, and cost support for the IC CAIG. In addition, she has worked on ICE teams reviewing Northrop Grumman proposals. At the 2004 SCEA Conference she was the recipient of the Best Paper award in the Methods and Models 2 Track. At the 2005 SCEA/ISPA Conference she served as the Basic Training Track Chair.
Richard L. Coleman
is a 1968 Naval Academy graduate, received an M. S. with Distinction from the U. S. Naval Postgraduate School and retired from active duty as a Captain, USN, in 1993. His service included tours as Commanding Officer of USS Dewey (DDG 45), and as Director, Naval Center for Cost Analysis. He has worked extensively in cost, CAIV, and risk for the Missile Defense Agency (MDA), Navy ARO, the intelligence community, NAVAIR, and the DD(X) Design Agent team. He has supported numerous ship programs including DD(X), the DDG 51 class, Deepwater, LHD 8 and LHA 6, the LPD 17 class, Virginia class submarines, CNN 77, and CVN 21. He was recently appointed as the Director of the Cost and Price Analysis Center of Excellence and conducts Independent Cost Evaluations on Northrop Grumman programs. He has more than 50 professional papers to his credit, including five ISPA/SCEA and SCEA Best Paper Awards and two ADoDCAS Outstanding Contributed Papers. He was a senior reviewer for all the CostPROF modules and lead author of the Risk Module. He served as Regional and National Vice President of SCEA.
Jessica R. Summerville
graduated with a B.A. in Mathematics from the University of Michigan in 1994. She received an M.S. in Operations Research from the College of William and Mary in 1995. During her Masters program, she worked as a Programmer/Analyst at SAIC in support of NASA programs. She was recently appointed as Manager of the Risk and Cost Analysis Department and works mainly in the areas of cost and risk analysis. She has led multiple projects in support of several different customers, including the Missile Defense Agency (MDA), NAVAIR, intelligence community projects, and the DD(X) Design Agent team. She has supported numerous ship programs including DD(X), the DDG 51 class, Deepwater, LHD 8 and LHA 6, the LPD 17 class, Virginia class submarines, CNN 77, and CVN 21. In addition, she authored the regression analysis module for CostPROF, the official SCEA training course, and was a key player in developing several other modules. She is an author of over 30 papers including one SCEA Best Paper Award and an ADoDCAS Outstanding Contributed Paper.