Palisade Series Part III: Turning Expert Opinion into Defensible Distributions

This webinar will provide an in-depth coverage of subjective probability assessment, to include a discussion of considerations for interviewing experts and minimizing the effect of biases like anchoring and adjustment, followed by a demonstration of how to use @RISK to identify the best fitting distribution from interview results.

This series of webinars is intended to provide @RISK users with guidance on settings to use in the Fit Distributions to Data dialog box, and insight necessary for narrowing down the often-overwhelming candidate list of probability distributions available in @RISK for modeling inputs. Even users who have attended regional training and/or watched relevant on-demand webinars may still be unclear about:

1. what settings to use in the multiple tabs and radio buttons/drop down boxes within the Fit Distributions to Data dialog box
2. how to know which test result(s) to pay the most attention to
3. nuances of the distribution choice that involve both art and science
4. subtle differences between the triangular and PERT distributions
5. how to interview experts, avoid biases associated with subjective probability assessment, and turn interview results into a defensible input distribution
Whether a newcomer to @RISK and input distribution selection or an experienced user seeking amplification on these topics, this three-part, deep-dive series was developed with you in mind.