Christian B. Smart is the Chief Data Scientist with Galorath Federal, a leading international supplier of parametric cost models and data analytics consulting services. He supports NASA and the Department of Defense in the application of analytics for cutting-edge programs, including nuclear propulsion and hypersonic weapon systems. Dr. Smart led the development of a quantitative cost risk analysis capability for the NASA/Air Force Cost Model, conducted joint cost and schedule risk analysis for NASA, and participated in the development of a probabilistic risk analysis for the Space Shuttle.
Dr. Smart has been an active and avid ICEAA member for years, and is among the most awarded authors of paper presentations for our Professional Development & Training Workshop, having won a Best Paper in Category award five times in the past six years, and Best Paper of the 2016 International Training Symposium.
His upcoming book, Solving for Project Risk Management: Understanding the Critical Role of Uncertainty in Project Management will be released in November, but you can view the table of contents below, and download a preview of chapter 1:
CHAPTER 1: Show Me the Data
The Enduring Problems of Cost Growth and Schedule Delays
CHAPTER 2: Here We Grow Again
Why Cost Increases and Schedule Delays Occur
CHAPTER 3: Beyond the Matrix
The Cost and Schedule Risk Imperative
CHAPTER 4: Covered with Oil
Incorporating Realism in Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis
CHAPTER 5: The Portfolio Effect and the Free Lunch
The Pitfalls of Diversification
CHAPTER 6: Here Be Dragons
Considering the Tails in Risk Management
CHAPTER 7: Trying to Do Too Much with Too Little
The Importance of Portfolio Planning
CHAPTER 8: Thinking Strategically
Managing Risk, Establishing Reserves, and Setting Incentives
CHAPTER 9: Summary and Conclusion
Reaping the Rewards of Risk Management
Dr. Smart’s research draws from several of his presentations from ICEAA and other industry events:
Engineering the Acquisition Process: Using Mechanism Design to Achieve Better Value. Paper presented at the International Cost Estimating and Analysis Association Professional Development and Training Workshop, Tampa, May 14-17, 2019.
Enhancing Risk Calibration Methods. Paper presented at the International Cost Estimating and Analysis Professional Development and Training Workshop, Phoenix, June 12-15, 2018.
The Signal and The Noise in Cost Estimating. Paper presented at the ICEAA International Training Symposium, Bristol, UK, October 17-20, 2016.
Beyond Correlation: Don’t Use the Formula That Killed Wall Street. Paper presented at the International Cost Estimating and Analysis Association Professional Development and Training Workshop, San Diego, June 9-12, 2015.
Covered with Oil: Incorporating Realism in Cost Risk Analysis, Journal of Cost Analysis and Parametrics, 8:3, 186-205, 2015, DOI: 10.1080/1941658X.2015.1096220.
Cost Risk Allocation Theory and Practice, Journal of Cost Analysis and Parametrics 7, No. 2 (2014): 72-100, DOI: 10.1080/1941658X.2014.922907.
Robust Default Correlation for Cost Risk Analysis. Paper presented at the International Cost Estimating and Analysis Association Professional Development and Training Workshop, New Orleans, June 18-21, 2013.
Here There Be Dragons: Considering the Right Tail in Risk Management, Journal of Cost Analysis and Parametrics 5, No. 2 (2012).
NAFCOM Improvements: Assessing the Impact of Phasing and Schedule on Cost: Final Report, prepared for NASA Headquarters, January 1, 2009. Presentation version also available.
The Portfolio Effect and the Free Lunch, Paper presented at The International Society of Parametric Analysts and The Society of Cost Estimating and Analysis Professional Development and Training Workshop, St. Louis, MO, June 2-5, 2009.
Cost and Schedule Interrelationships, presented at the NASA Cost Symposium, Denver, July 17-19, 2007.
Cost Risk in the NASA/Air Force Cost Model. Paper presented at the SCEA/ISPA Joint International Conference and Educational Workshop, Denver, CO, June 14-17, 2005.
Exploring the Limits of Faster-Better-Cheaper with the Mission Cost Risk Assessment Model, presented to the Office of Management and Budget, Washington, D.C., January 4, 2001.