Q.E.D Webinar – Solving for Project Risk Management: Understanding the Critical Role of Uncertainty in Project Management

Each webinar attended earns 0.1 points towards CCEA recertification.

Registration is currently closed for this webinar. The video recording will be available for purchase starting Thursday, June 24.

Risk is an important consideration for all projects. However, when projects plan, they tend to look only at the best-case scenario. The overwhelming emphasis on performance, to the exclusion of cost and schedule considerations, pervades project management. Lack of planning for financial risks leads to significant cost and schedule growth. Cost and schedule increases are a common recurring phenomenon for all projects. Average cost growth in development has been a steady 50% and higher for several decades. One in six programs doubles in cost. These unplanned-for risks cause turmoil when they arise, leading to schedule delays. This enduring phenomenon indicates that:

1. Projects have significant resource risks
2. In general, risk is not effectively measured or managed

Despite its importance, many projects treat risk as if it were just another four-letter word. Risk measurement and management are imperatives. Estimates of cost and schedule that rely on most-likely inputs lead to significant underestimation of the time and effort required to complete projects. Cost and schedule estimates are stochastic in nature, and need consideration from the ground up, not just as an add-on to a point estimate.

Even when projects conduct risk analysis, there are several issues with current practice:

1. Risk is underestimated
2. Projects are funded to low confidence levels, resulting in added risk at the portfolio level
3. Reliance on confidence levels does not consider tail risk
4. Organizations do not assess portfolio-level impacts when considering new projects

The good news is that all these issues can be fixed. This presentation discusses these issues, as well as ways to fix them. Risk management is a mature discipline. Including proper risk management in program planning is a low-hanging fruit that is ripe and ready to pick. A little planning is an investment that will pay big dividends by setting you apart from the competition.

This presentation provides an overview of the forthcoming book Solving for Project Risk Management: Understanding the Critical Role of Uncertainty in Project Management, to be published by McGraw-Hill in November 2020 (pre-order now available through Amazon: http://tiny.cc/j7xbpz).

About the Author:
Dr. Christian Smart (CCEA®) is the Chief Data Scientist with Galorath Federal. He previously served as the Director of Cost Analytics and Parametric Estimating for the Missile Defense Agency for several years. Dr. Smart has also worked as a support contractor for NASA. He received an Exceptional Public Service Medal from NASA and is a former ISPA Parametrician of the Year. Dr. Smart has BS degrees in mathematics and economics, and a PhD in Applied Mathematics.