2020 SCAF/ICEAA Virtual Workshop: Andy Nolan and Christian Smart

The Art of Judgement
Andy Nolan
Webinar Presentation: Tuesday, November 24, 2020 at 4pm GMT/11am EST

Many of us rely on “expert judgement” when estimating, but the evidence is that it can be unreliable. Based on a study of 3760 guesses, we noticed that 70% of people tend to underestimate. A new study in 2020 of 7400 guesses, showed that 69% of people tend to quote a narrow min-max range when guessing a 3-point estimate. When using judgement, most of us are too low and too precise, we are precisely wrong! This research showed that within 30 minutes, 60% of people could improve their judgement accuracy. It seems most people can quickly calibrate themselves, but not everyone. In 2018 we developed a quick and simple calibration test to determine if someone could reliably estimate. The trials spanned 578 people and several companies. It showed that we could reliably predict who, and when, we can trust a guess. The paper summarises four years of research, offers training methods and methods for how to enhance judgement accuracy. It also suggests that for some, they will need to rely on data rather than their judgements.

Andy Nolan joined Rolls-Royce in 1989 and spent 23 years in software development and project management. In this role, he developed some of the initial estimating tools, techniques and training now used across Rolls-Royce. Andy became a Six-Sigma Black Belt in 2007. Since 2012, Andy has been the Chief of Project Estimating, specialising in project development costs, resources, schedules and benefits. His role is to evaluate, develop and deploy capabilities for estimating across the business. Some of this work is now available in the public domain for which Andy has received recognition.

The Quantitative Risk Management Imperative
Christian B. Smart
Webinar Presentation: Tuesday, November 24, 2020 at 4pm GMT/11am EST

Risk is an important consideration for all projects. However, as a society we are risk blind. When projects plan, they tend to look only at the best-case scenario. Risk is not just a nice to have, it is a critical ingredient in project success, and it needs to be analyzed quantitatively. The use of point estimates, averages, and qualitative methods all underestimate risk. The use of quantitative methods for risk analysis is well established. We discuss how to successfully implement them in the analysis of project risk.

Dr. Christian Smart (CCEA®) is the Chief Data Scientist with Galorath Federal. He previously served as the Director of Cost Analytics and Parametric Estimating for the Missile Defense Agency for several years. Dr. Smart has also worked as a support contractor for NASA. He received an Exceptional Public Service Medal from NASA and is a former ISPA Parametrician of the Year. Dr. Smart has BS degrees in mathematics and economics, and a PhD in Applied Mathematics.