Posted by Augustine’s Law: Are We Really Headed for the $800 Billion-Dollar Fighter?
From the Journal of Cost Analysis and Parametrics: Volume 10 | Issue 2 | April 2022
Downloadable File: JCAPv10i2-AugustineLaw800BillionFighter-Johnstone
Abstract: Augustine’s Law famously proposed fighter aircraft costs are growing so rapidly that by 2054 buying a single tactical aircraft will consume the entire defense budget. Is the situation really so dire? This paper examines the trend in U.S. fighter costs and relates them to generational changes in aircraft design and manufacture. It also examines the new jet fighters of the 2000s to see if Augustine’s Law is really unfolding as its author originally thought.
Author: Brent Johnstone is a Lockheed Martin Fellow and production air vehicle cost estimator at Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Company in Fort Worth, Texas. He has 34 years’ experience in the military aircraft industry, including 31 years as a cost estimator. He has worked on the F-16 program and has been most recently the lead Production Operations cost estimator for the F-35 program. He has a Master of Science from Texas A&M University and a Bachelor of Arts from the University of Texas at Austin.