Posted by Modeling Evolutionary Architectural Growth in Major Defense Acquisition Programs
From the Journal of Cost Analysis and Parametrics: Volume 10 | Issue 2 | April 2022
Downloadable File: JCAPv10i2-ModelingEvolutionaryArchitecturalGrowth-Dabkowski
Abstract: One of the critical artifacts in the system design process is the architecture. Represented in a variety of ways, architectures evolve over time as user needs evolve and design limits are reached. The emergent requirement to submit Department of Defense Architecture Framework (DoDAF) models prior to Milestone A has created opportunities for the early life cycle cost estimation of major defense acquisition programs. Although this development could be seen as positive, any cost estimation procedure ultimately needs to be informed and validated by real-world data. In this paper, we examine the assumptions underlying one such method – an algorithm to
estimate the cost of unanticipated, evolutionary architectural growth via the SV-3 (or Systems- Systems Matrix) and the Constructive Systems Engineering Cost Model. Specifically, using SV-3s from 24 different defense programs, we found that while the data generally comport with the method, alternative growth and connection mechanisms are needed. As such, we propose a modified, data-driven approach using number theory, network science, simulation, and statistical analysis – one which not only improves the algorithm’s fidelity but also reinforces the value of viewing DoDAF models as computational objects.
Authors:
Matthew Dabkowski is a Colonel in the US Army and an Associate Professor in the Department of Systems Engineering at the U.S. Military Academy. He has served in the United States Army for 24 years as an Infantry Officer, Operations Research Analyst, and Academy Professor. He is a graduate of West Point (B.S. in Operations Research) and the University of Arizona (M.S. in Systems Engineering and Ph.D. in Systems and Industrial Engineering). His research interests include applied statistics and simulation modeling.
Arthur Middlebrooks is a Major in the US Army and an Assistant Professor in the Department of Systems Engineering at the U.S. Military Academy. He has served in the United States Army for 11 years as an Armor Officer and Operations Research Analyst. He is a graduate of West Point (B.S. in Systems Engineering) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (M.S. in Engineering and Management). His research interests include value-based decision analysis and system dynamics simulation.
Ricardo Valerdi is a Distinguished Outreach Professor at the University of Arizona in the Department of Systems and Industrial Engineering. His research focuses on systems engineering, cost estimation, and sports analytics. He was the Founder and Co-Editor-in-Chief of the Journal of Enterprise Transformation and was the Editor-in-Chief of the Journal of Cost Analysis and Parametrics. He served on the Board of Directors of the International Council on Systems Engineering (INCOSE) and is a Senior Member of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) and a Fellow of INCOSE. He won the Frank Freiman Award from ICEAA for his contributions to cost model development, is a recipient of the USC Center for Systems & Software Engineering Lifetime Achievement Award, and was elected as a foreign member to the Mexican National Academy of Engineering. He received a Ph.D. in Industrial and Systems Engineering from the University of Southern California.