Posted by Cost Estimating Relationships for Recurring T100 Flyaway Costs
From the Journal of Cost Analysis and Parametrics: Volume 11 | Issue 1 | April 2023
Downloadable File: JCAPv11i1-CERforT100Flyaway-Rojo
Abstract: This research investigates a dataset of over 80 Air Force and Navy aircraft and applies regression techniques to create two cost estimating relationships (CERs) for predicting recurring T100 flyaway costs, depending on where in the acquisition lifecycle the estimate takes place. The first CER explains 89 percent of the variability and can be applied prior to Milestone B (MS B). The second CER explains 88 percent of the variability and can be applied between MS B and MS C. Significant cost drivers identified include stealth, cohort, empty weight, the natural log of speed, legacy aircraft, fighter aircraft, and Engineering and Manufacturing Development costs. This research is the largest aircraft regression study to date for recurring T100 flyaway costs and can be used by cost analysts as a cross-check in early estimations.
Authors:
Kyrie M. Rojo, USAF, is a recent graduate of the Air Force Institute of Technology (AFIT) where she earned a Master’s of Science in Cost Analysis. She is currently assigned as a cost analyst for the Aircraft and Weapons Division at the Air Force Cost Analysis Agency.
Dr. Brandon M. Lucas is an Assistant Professor of Systems Integration & Cost Analysis in the Department of Systems Engineering and Management at AFIT. He holds a BA in History from the University of Texas at Austin, a MA in International Relations and ME in Teacher Education from the University of Oklahoma, a MS in Cost Analysis from AFIT, and a PhD in Economics from George Mason University. Dr. Lucas’ research interests include profit analysis, cost & economic analyses, and incentive structures.
Dr. Edward D. White is a Professor of Statistics in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at AFIT. He received his BS in Mathematics from the University of Tampa, MAS from The Ohio State University, and Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M University. His primary research interests include statistical modeling, simulation, and data analytics.
Dr. Jonathan D. Ritschel is an Associate Professor of Cost Analysis in the Department of Systems Engineering and Management at AFIT. He received his BBA in Accountancy from the University of Notre Dame, his MS in Cost Analysis from AFIT, and his Ph.D. in Economics from George Mason University. Dr. Ritschel’s research interests include public choice, cost analysis, and economic institutional analysis.
Mr. Shawn M. Valentine is an Operations Research Analyst at AFLCMC/FZCE at Wright Patterson AFB, Ohio. Mr. Valentine graduated from Ohio University with a Bachelor of Science (BS) in Actuarial Science and a Master of Science (MS) in Financial Economics.