2018 Professional Development & Training Workshop – International Cost Estimating and Analysis Association

ICEAA’s annual Professional Development & Training Workshop brings together professionals from government, industry and academic cost communities for an intensive 3 1/2-day program dedicated to developing the understanding and appreciation of using data-driven estimating and analysis techniques.

“The ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop was a great experience in expanding my current skillset and knowledge of industry practices in estimation. It also gave me a chance to meet fellow peers and established professionals – and was a fun time to network.” -2017 Attendee Testimonial

The ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop meets all requirements for sponsored training activity attendance as outlined in the USGPO Code of Federal Regulations.

Special Thanks to all of our 2018 Sponsors and Exhibitors!

2018 Best Papers:

ICEAA’s Best Paper process begins when authors are selected to present at the ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop, who may choose to submit a narrative-format paper along with the presentation they plan to give during the event. Those narrative papers submitted by the Best Paper Judging deadline are broken into theme-based categories and the best paper of each category is chosen by a panel of judges who name the best paper per category. Those winners are then rated by all of the judges from the various categories and the highest scoring paper among the winners is named Best Paper Overall.

Acquisition & Operations Category Winner -and- Best Paper Overall:
Cost and Competition in U.S. Defense Acquisiton
Eric Lofgren

The cost estimator has a major role in determining the price, and therefore value, of major systems acquisition in the Department of Defense. Two primary costing methodologies include “should cost” and “will cost” analysis, and are affected by “must cost” realities. This paper explores the history of these costing methods and places them in a theoretical context, first with respect to the meaning of competition, and second with respect to the nature of cost.

AO05 – PPT – Lofgren – Cost and Competition

AO05 – Paper – Lofgren – Cost and Competition

Comprehensive Perspectives Category Winner -and- Best Paper Overall:
Being Certain About Uncertainty, Part 2
Andy Prince

This paper addresses the difficult and pervasive challenge of identifying extreme cost growth early in a project’s life cycle and preventing it before it happens. The paper examines how DoD and NASA have implemented policies and practices to minimized or eliminate extreme cost growth and why those policies can sometimes fail. Finally, we propose some remedies that could help and identify some warning signs that a project may be headed for trouble.

CP07 – PPT – Prince – Being Certain About Uncertainty: Part 2

CP07 – Paper – Prince – Being Certain About Uncertainty: Part 2

Analysis & Innovation Category Winner:
Demand, Recurring Costs, and Profitability
Douglas Howarth

Customers in all markets collectively abide by their self-imposed demand curves, which dictate their responsiveness to changes in price and the maximum quantities of products they can absorb. Concurrently, producers in all markets face recurring costs, which typically fall over time due to a variety of factors. Producers can effectively model demand and recurring costs before product launch. Understanding how demand curves relate to recurring costs is key to enhancing profitability, which this paper examines.

EA12 – PPT – Howarth – Demand, Recurring Costs, and Profitability

EA12 – Paper – Howarth – Demand, Recurring Costs, and Profitability

Risk, Modeling & Management Category Winner:
Enhancing Risk Calibration Methods
Christian Smart

Calibration methods such as the Enhanced Scenario-Based Method allow analysts to establish cost risk analyses that are based on objective data. Some methods currently in use rely on the normal and two-parameter lognormal. Empirical data, however, indicates that a three-parameter lognormal is more appropriate for modeling cost risk. We discuss three-parameter lognormals and how to calibrate cost risk using this distribution. We compare the results with traditional calibration to two-parameter normal and lognormal distributions.

RU06 – PPT – Smart – Enhancing Risk Calibration Methods

RU06 – Paper – Smart – Enhancing Risk Calibration Methods

RU06 – Excel Spreadsheet – Smart – Enhancing Risk Calibration Methods

Software & Agile Category Winner:
A Probablistic Method for Predicting Software Code Growth: 2018 Update
Bopha Seng
Eric Sommer
David LaPorte
Michael Ross

Software estimating is challenging. SMC’s approach has evolved over time to tackle this challenge. Originally based on Mike Ross’s 2011 DSLOC Estimate Growth Model, we’ve updated our model to include more recent SRDR data and an improved methodology (Orthogonal Distance Regression). Discussions will focus on non-linear relationships between size and growth, unique growth for new, modified, and unmodified DSLOC, as well as correlation between DSLOC types and future efforts to include space flight software data.

SW09 – PPT – Sommer – A Probabilistic Method

SW09 – Paper – Sommer – A Probabilistic Method

Keynote Speakers:

Carol Hibbard

Carol Hibbard is vice president of Finance and chief financial officer of Boeing Defense, Space & Security (BDS), an over $20 billion business specializing in innovative and capability-driven solutions to meet the needs of defense, government, space, intelligence and security customers in the United States and around the world. Based out of Arlington, Va., she leads all BDS financial activities.

Previously, Carol was the BDS controller, responsible for all accounting, financial analysis & compliance activities. Carol has also served as vice president and chief financial officer of Boeing’s former Engineering, Operations & Technology organization. Before that, she served as director of BDS Financial Planning & Analysis. With over 20 years of experience, her other roles include director of Financial Performance & Controller Operations for the enterprise and management positions supporting the F/A-18 program, Partnering for Success, and Estimating & Procurement Financial Analysis for Tactical Aircraft Programs.

Carol received a Master of Business Administration degree from Virginia Polytechnic University and a bachelor’s degree in statistics from the University of Pittsburgh. She has served on the National Board for the International Cost Estimating and Analysis Association (ICEAA) and was a 2012 Eisenhower Fellow where she had the opportunity to participate in a leadership exchange program abroad. Carol also serves as an executive champion for the Boeing Women in Leadership Network.

David Kriegman

David Kriegman is the President and CEO of Z2B, LLC, a consulting company that provides strategic and operational advice to help companies achieve their growth goals.

Kriegman spent 30 years growing and managing companies that provide professional services to the government. After working for the government, he held a number of leadership positions in private industry. Kriegman was Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of SRA International, a $1.3B government systems integration company with 5,500 employees; President of Command Federal, a venture-backed company focused on the Internet of Things; President of Tech Team Government Services, a wholly-owned subsidiary of a commercial, IT outsourcing company; and Senior Vice President and General Manager of the Jacobs Technology Strategic Solutions Group. Joining SRA when its revenues were less than $5M, Kriegman was a member of the leadership team that grew the company to over $1B.

Kriegman is a frequent speaker at industry and corporate events and serves as a lecturer and adjunct professor at programs offered by the Defense Acquisition University and the George Mason University (GMU) School of Business Executive Education.

Kriegman is the author of Zero to a Billion: 61 Rules Entrepreneurs Need to Know to Grow a Government Contracting Business.